BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+342%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.52
20270.240.000.53
20280.240.000.53
20290.250.000.53
20300.250.000.54

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover CreekOREGON182025
MadrasOREGON172025
TwickenhamOREGON122025
Green RiverWYOMING91980
Browns ParkCOLORADO72025
MckinnonWYOMING31980
MaybellCOLORADO22025
DonnybrookOREGON21997
WoodruffUTAH22025
RelianceWYOMING21980
Great DivideCOLORADO12018
LayCOLORADO12025
FloraOREGON11991
LogdellOREGON12025
BridgeportOREGON12025
Eagle RockOREGON11976
Mount VernonOREGON11994
Hash RockOREGON12000
Summit PrOREGON12025
BarnhouseOREGON12022
MonumentOREGON12024
MidvaleWYOMING11974
Patrick DrawWYOMING11977
DiamondvilleWYOMING11980
Mtn ViewWYOMING11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.