BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 324% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+324%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 324% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.51
20260.230.000.51
20270.230.000.52
20280.230.000.52
20290.230.000.52

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover CreekOREGON232024
MadrasOREGON182024
TwickenhamOREGON162024
Green RiverWYOMING91980
Browns ParkCOLORADO82024
MaybellCOLORADO42024
Summit PrOREGON32024
MckinnonWYOMING31980
LayCOLORADO22024
DonnybrookOREGON21997
RelianceWYOMING21980
Great DivideCOLORADO12018
FloraOREGON11991
LogdellOREGON11996
Eagle RockOREGON11976
Mount VernonOREGON11994
Hash RockOREGON12000
BarnhouseOREGON12022
MonumentOREGON12024
WoodruffUTAH12011
MidvaleWYOMING11974
Patrick DrawWYOMING11977
DiamondvilleWYOMING11980
Mtn ViewWYOMING11983
Rock SpringsWYOMING12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.