BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Anna's Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Anna's Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+3%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Anna's Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Anna's Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.04–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Anna's Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.04–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.030.45
20260.240.030.46
20270.240.040.46
20280.250.040.46
20290.250.040.46

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Anna's Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PrescottARIZONA22022
PatagoniaARIZONA22022
PomereneARIZONA12022
Peña BlancaARIZONA12024
Skull ValleyARIZONA12021
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12019
Bartlett ResARIZONA12024
RedingtonARIZONA12005
SahuaritaARIZONA12021
Carr MtnARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.