BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Anna's Hummingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Anna's Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-9%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Anna's Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Anna's Hummingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Anna's Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.03–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+117%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Anna's Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.03–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.020.53
20260.280.020.53
20270.280.030.54
20280.280.030.54
20290.290.030.54

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Anna's Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PearblossomCALIFORNIA72019
Cutter 2ARIZONA52018
Red Rock 2ARIZONA42019
OnyxCALIFORNIA31998
WikieupARIZONA22017
New RiverARIZONA22009
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA22018
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22022
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA22016
OatmanARIZONA12022
QuartzsiteARIZONA12015
LagunaARIZONA12008
DatelandARIZONA12021
RivieraARIZONA12024
ArabyARIZONA12023
Red RockARIZONA12014
WickenburgARIZONA12018
HopeARIZONA12009
Casa GrandeARIZONA12022
Ajo 2ARIZONA12019
Cactus ForestARIZONA12024
Organ PipeARIZONA12021
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA12024
Hope 2ARIZONA12017
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.