BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.42.610
20266.52.710
20276.62.810
20286.72.911
20296.93.011

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA2402012
TenneyMINNESOTA1202016
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA612021
GlyndonMINNESOTA472024
Hay LakeMONTANA462017
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA402024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA322024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA262024
HuntleyMINNESOTA252012
HarlemMONTANA252017
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA232014
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA212024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA202005
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA202023
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA192024
MaltaMONTANA182018
MaynardMINNESOTA172015
OswegoMONTANA172006
FranklinMINNESOTA152007
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA152024
DawsonMINNESOTA142023
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA121974
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA112023
AppletonMINNESOTA102019
FairmontMINNESOTA102023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.