BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

American White Pelican In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 2.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 2.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.32.510
20276.42.610
20286.52.710
20296.62.810
20306.72.911

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American White Pelican in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA2402012
TenneyMINNESOTA1202016
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA612025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA612021
Hay LakeMONTANA462017
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA402024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA322024
HuntleyMINNESOTA252012
HarlemMONTANA252017
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA252025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA232014
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA202005
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA202023
TracyMINNESOTA182025
MaltaMONTANA182018
MaynardMINNESOTA172015
OswegoMONTANA172006
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA162025
FranklinMINNESOTA152007
DawsonMINNESOTA142023
ClevelandMONTANA142025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA132025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA132025
FairmontMINNESOTA122025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA121974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.