BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+99%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.417
2027115.517
2028115.617
2029125.617
2030125.718

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA882025
AlpineARIZONA852025
SprucedaleARIZONA442025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA392025
BlueARIZONA341991
WilliamsARIZONA302025
PinetopARIZONA232022
FlagstaffARIZONA182025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA172025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO142025
PrescottARIZONA132025
Mormon LakeARIZONA121975
PortalARIZONA122025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA122025
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
MaineARIZONA72025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO72025
SunizonaARIZONA61997
Forest LakesARIZONA52025
RuckerARIZONA52009
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
Carr MtnARIZONA32025
PatagoniaARIZONA22025
CutterARIZONA12000
Clay SpringARIZONA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.