BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.117
2026115.217
2027115.217
2028115.317
2029115.417

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording American Robin in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA882024
AlpineARIZONA812023
SprucedaleARIZONA552023
BlueARIZONA341991
FlagstaffARIZONA262022
Mt. GrahamARIZONA252023
PinetopARIZONA232022
WilliamsARIZONA172019
ReserveNEW-MEXICO142023
Mormon LakeARIZONA121975
MaineARIZONA112024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA102021
PrescottARIZONA92022
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO92024
PortalARIZONA82024
SunizonaARIZONA61997
RuckerARIZONA52009
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
PatagoniaARIZONA22024
Forest LakesARIZONA22024
CutterARIZONA12000
Clay SpringARIZONA12014
Carr MtnARIZONA12022
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.