BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

American Robin in Coastal California has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+109%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Coastal California: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Coastal California is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Coastal California is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.015
2026118.115
2027118.215
2028128.215
2029128.315

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording American Robin in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA552023
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA462023
PescaderoCALIFORNIA402024
GravesboroCALIFORNIA331995
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA332023
JacksonCALIFORNIA321992
AthloneCALIFORNIA302007
PenningtonCALIFORNIA292024
CaruthersCALIFORNIA281987
WestleyCALIFORNIA272024
CohassetCALIFORNIA262024
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA242024
HughsonCALIFORNIA232024
OrovilleCALIFORNIA232024
OrlandCALIFORNIA222022
MoragaCALIFORNIA212024
TiptonCALIFORNIA211997
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA212024
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA201991
AtwaterCALIFORNIA202012
AuburnCALIFORNIA191980
Big BearCALIFORNIA181986
Mark WestCALIFORNIA172024
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA172024
FairfaxCALIFORNIA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.