BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

American Robin in Coastal California has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+118%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Coastal California: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Coastal California is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 9.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Coastal California is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 9.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.914
2027118.015
2028118.115
2029118.115
2030118.215

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording American Robin in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA552023
WestleyCALIFORNIA472025
OrovilleCALIFORNIA402025
GravesboroCALIFORNIA331995
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA332023
JacksonCALIFORNIA321992
AthloneCALIFORNIA302007
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA292025
CaruthersCALIFORNIA281987
PenningtonCALIFORNIA262025
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA242024
HughsonCALIFORNIA232025
OrlandCALIFORNIA222022
PescaderoCALIFORNIA222025
TiptonCALIFORNIA211997
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA201991
AtwaterCALIFORNIA202012
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA202025
AuburnCALIFORNIA191980
MoragaCALIFORNIA192025
Big BearCALIFORNIA181986
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA172025
CohassetCALIFORNIA162025
FairfaxCALIFORNIA152024
GlennCALIFORNIA142023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.