BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

American Robin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

American Robin In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 41–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
41–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 41–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025514161
2026514161
2027514161
2028514161
2029514161

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Robin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY3252012
ManorvilleNEW-YORK1672024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS1642019
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY1492024
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY1301991
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT1242024
WarrenCONNECTICUT1162011
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY1142009
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS1132024
KeyportNEW-JERSEY1032022
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND1012010
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS992024
HauppaugeNEW-YORK982018
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS942024
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND922024
MiltonDELAWARE892016
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS891976
MysticCONNECTICUT882023
WoodstockCONNECTICUT882007
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS862019
Milton 2DELAWARE852017
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND822024
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS812022
Jones BeachNEW-YORK812013
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS802024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.