BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Forest birds

American Robin in BCR 3 has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-14%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in BCR 3. See the full index history below.

American Robin In BCR 3 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 3 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 5.0–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 3 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 5.0–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026134.321
2027134.521
2028134.721
2029134.921
2030135.021

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording American Robin in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dietrich CmpALASKA442025
Happy ValleyALASKA32025
Red DogALASKA32025
Galbraith L.ALASKA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.