BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Forest birds

American Robin in BCR 3 has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-22%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in BCR 3. See the full index history below.

American Robin In BCR 3 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.6–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.6–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025123.921
2026124.121
2027134.321
2028134.421
2029134.621

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording American Robin in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dietrich CmpALASKA262024
Red DogALASKA52024
Happy ValleyALASKA32024
Galbraith L.ALASKA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.