BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

American Robin in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
230Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.9–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.9–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.01.96.1
20264.01.96.1
20274.01.96.1
20284.01.96.1
20294.01.96.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording American Robin in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CornlandVIRGINIA672014
ShilohKENTUCKY462023
St FlorianALABAMA412024
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA361999
HumboldtTENNESSEE322024
TupeloMISSISSIPPI292022
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA221981
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA212022
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA202024
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA192024
FayetteMISSISSIPPI172013
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA172024
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI162001
LovelacevileKENTUCKY152024
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA151995
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA152013
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142017
BloctonALABAMA122024
VernonALABAMA122021
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA122024
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Big SandyTENNESSEE122024
TazewellGEORGIA112018
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA112024
MansfieldTENNESSEE112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.