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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+181%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510.05.814
2026105.914
2027106.014
2028106.014
2029106.114

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI492024
WilsonARKANSAS402024
WhittonARKANSAS351991
Baton RougeLOUISIANA342024
BlodgettMISSOURI292024
PawpawTENNESSEE282012
HarrisburgARKANSAS272019
DellARKANSAS272024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI261993
HaytiMISSOURI252021
DeventerMISSOURI202024
BardwellKENTUCKY182003
MoonMISSISSIPPI162021
KennettMISSOURI152024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY142024
HughesARKANSAS132023
MaynardARKANSAS122024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE122023
EnglandARKANSAS112024
KelsoARKANSAS82016
Augusta 2ARKANSAS82016
TchulaMISSISSIPPI81975
SaffellARKANSAS72019
MayflowerLOUISIANA72024
AugustaARKANSAS42001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.