BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+201%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.95.714
20279.95.814
202810.05.814
2029105.914
2030106.014

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording American Robin in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI442025
WhittonARKANSAS351991
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE312025
BlodgettMISSOURI282025
PawpawTENNESSEE282012
HarrisburgARKANSAS272019
CommerceMISSISSIPPI261993
HaytiMISSOURI252021
WilsonARKANSAS222025
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE222025
MaynardARKANSAS212025
KennettMISSOURI202025
BardwellKENTUCKY182003
Baton RougeLOUISIANA162025
MoonMISSISSIPPI162021
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY92025
KelsoARKANSAS82016
Augusta 2ARKANSAS82016
TchulaMISSISSIPPI81975
SaffellARKANSAS72019
DeventerMISSOURI72025
HughesARKANSAS62025
MayflowerLOUISIANA62025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS52025
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.