BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

American Robin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.004.8
20271.40.004.7
20281.40.004.6
20291.30.004.5
20301.20.004.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording American Robin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MassardARKANSAS252022
Coal HillARKANSAS222023
PocolaOKLAHOMA182016
McalesterOKLAHOMA161991
BlancoOKLAHOMA152016
DibollTEXAS112025
ManyLOUISIANA91992
CrowsARKANSAS81991
BlakelyARKANSAS81999
HaughtonLOUISIANA82025
CanadianOKLAHOMA72017
SandbluffOKLAHOMA71995
Poyen 2ARKANSAS62025
IndianolaOKLAHOMA62025
SpringhillARKANSAS52013
AthensTEXAS52025
WechesTEXAS52025
Locust BayouARKANSAS42023
StephensARKANSAS42025
CartervilleLOUISIANA41992
ZwolleLOUISIANA42017
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA41997
CrossroadsTEXAS42025
Chandler 2TEXAS42024
HollywoodARKANSAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.