BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 73 (95% range 61–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
61–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 73 (95% range 61–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025715983
2026726084
2027726084
2028726085
2029736185

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrempealeauWISCONSIN1842024
ParisWISCONSIN1792024
MiddleburyINDIANA1512024
BeloitWISCONSIN1452024
GrimmsWISCONSIN1412021
VickeryOHIO1282024
St CharlesMICHIGAN1272019
BismarkOHIO1271995
LapeerMICHIGAN1262024
LockportOHIO1252024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN1252024
N AndoverWISCONSIN1242024
PackertownINDIANA1232004
NapoleonOHIO1232024
South BendINDIANA1161991
HoltMICHIGAN1162024
N BaltimoreOHIO1162019
EdenWISCONSIN1122024
OmroWISCONSIN1092001
GalesburgMICHIGAN1072024
CohoctahMICHIGAN1072024
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN1072023
Columbia CtyINDIANA1052024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN1052024
N FreedomWISCONSIN1042024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.