BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 73 (95% range 61–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
61–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 73 (95% range 61–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026715983
2027726084
2028726084
2029726085
2030736185

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Robin in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrempealeauWISCONSIN1582025
NapoleonOHIO1472025
BeloitWISCONSIN1442025
GrimmsWISCONSIN1412021
LockportOHIO1372025
VickeryOHIO1342025
St CharlesMICHIGAN1272019
BismarkOHIO1271995
EdenWISCONSIN1262025
PackertownINDIANA1232004
ParisWISCONSIN1192025
MillvilleMINNESOTA1172025
South BendINDIANA1161991
N BaltimoreOHIO1162019
PardeevilleWISCONSIN1162025
MiddleburyINDIANA1132025
Omro 2WISCONSIN1102025
OmroWISCONSIN1092001
Fall RiverWISCONSIN1092025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN1092025
CohoctahMICHIGAN1082025
N FreedomWISCONSIN1082025
AnnatonWISCONSIN1082025
Columbia CtyINDIANA1052024
N AndoverWISCONSIN1032025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.