BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 83 (95% range 65–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
65–10195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 83 (95% range 65–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026806298
2027816399
2028816399
20298264100
20308365101

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarveysburgOHIO2421996
WilmingtonOHIO1741996
DunlapOHIO1731988
SheffieldILLINOIS1602024
WayneILLINOIS1602025
Terre HauteILLINOIS1582025
CaledoniaILLINOIS1492025
PontiacILLINOIS1442025
MackinawILLINOIS1432025
SenecaILLINOIS1422025
HarristownILLINOIS1422025
RaymondWISCONSIN1402025
AtkinsonILLINOIS1382024
LucerneMISSOURI1382025
DecaturINDIANA1342025
MurdockNEBRASKA1342025
GulfportILLINOIS1282025
PlainfieldINDIANA1261999
New LenoxILLINOIS1252019
ItascaILLINOIS1242025
Mt HamillIOWA1232025
NewarkILLINOIS1222022
SherrardILLINOIS1202025
IrvingtonNEBRASKA1192025
MaplewoodINDIANA1162021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.