BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 83 (95% range 66–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
66–10195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 83 (95% range 66–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025816398
2026816499
20278264100
20288365100
20298366101

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Robin in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarveysburgOHIO2421996
MurdockNEBRASKA1782024
WilmingtonOHIO1741996
DunlapOHIO1731988
RaymondWISCONSIN1662024
SheffieldILLINOIS1602024
Terre HauteILLINOIS1562024
WayneILLINOIS1492024
Red RockIOWA1462024
AtkinsonILLINOIS1382024
CaledoniaILLINOIS1342024
HarristownILLINOIS1332024
MiddletownINDIANA1262024
PlainfieldINDIANA1261999
New LenoxILLINOIS1252019
MonticelloILLINOIS1242024
PontiacILLINOIS1232024
DecaturINDIANA1232024
NewarkILLINOIS1222022
West LibertyIOWA1172024
FairlandILLINOIS1162024
MaplewoodINDIANA1162021
NewportOHIO1161994
GalvestonINDIANA1152024
GretnaNEBRASKA1152018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.