BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

American Robin in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 114% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 114% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.980.002.8
20270.950.002.8
20280.930.002.8
20290.900.002.8
20300.870.002.7

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording American Robin in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeggsOKLAHOMA82023
OakwoodTEXAS81986
RhomeTEXAS82000
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA51977
SkiatookOKLAHOMA52019
LydiaTEXAS52022
Gambill Ref.TEXAS52025
GauseTEXAS41997
WeatherfordTEXAS42025
Wolfe CityTEXAS41987
NobleOKLAHOMA32025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA32024
Peach CreekTEXAS31986
HenriettaTEXAS32022
Thornton 2TEXAS32010
LocoOKLAHOMA21984
TatumsOKLAHOMA22006
Lone OakTEXAS22019
DallasTEXAS22023
Miller GroveTEXAS22025
OlneyTEXAS21994
CayugaTEXAS22022
Wills PointTEXAS22014
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12009
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.