BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

American Robin in BCR 2 has surged: up 632% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+632%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in BCR 2: up 632% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

American Robin In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 12–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 12–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251138
2026251139
2027251139
2028261239
2029261240

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording American Robin in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
King SalmonALASKA582024
CouncilALASKA272024
DillinghamALASKA222019
NomeALASKA182023
Salmon LakeALASKA182024
Togiak RiverALASKA172005
St. Mary'SALASKA162014
Gweek RiverALASKA162002
TellerALASKA132024
Katmai N.P.ALASKA122022
TupuknukALASKA121995
Goodnews BayALASKA102005
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA101987
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA81984
Selawik (Short)ALASKA71987
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA71994
Kanektok RivALASKA62005
Cape NomeALASKA32024
KodiakALASKA21983
Cold BayALASKA22024
Kodiak 2ALASKA22024
KotzebueALASKA22024
ChiniakALASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.