BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

American Robin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+207%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211724
2027211725
2028211725
2029211825
2030221825

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American Robin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SurpriseNEBRASKA1852025
KenesawNEBRASKA1842025
BelvidereNEBRASKA1062025
HamptonNEBRASKA882025
HollenbergKANSAS812025
KearneyNEBRASKA692025
PetersburgNEBRASKA662025
SumnerNEBRASKA652025
SewardNEBRASKA612025
BoelusNEBRASKA562022
HanoverKANSAS472025
JamestownKANSAS442025
Beloit 2KANSAS442018
SargentNEBRASKA442025
TableNEBRASKA432025
ChambersNEBRASKA422025
AlbertKANSAS402025
BerwynNEBRASKA392010
PhillipsburgKANSAS362025
CovertKANSAS352025
LoganKANSAS352025
BradyNEBRASKA352025
JohnstownNEBRASKA342025
Jewell 2KANSAS312025
WellingtonKANSAS302025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.