BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

American Robin in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+292%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.4–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.4–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.35.09.5
20267.35.19.6
20277.45.29.7
20287.55.39.8
20297.65.49.9

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Robin in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LingleWYOMING962024
ElbertCOLORADO572024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA482024
BereaNEBRASKA372019
ArsenalCOLORADO352015
ChampionNEBRASKA332018
JulesburgCOLORADO292021
FlemingCOLORADO282024
PaxtonNEBRASKA282016
Murray LakeNEBRASKA252024
BrownsonNEBRASKA252021
Prospect ValCOLORADO222000
DaltonNEBRASKA202024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA192024
HudsonCOLORADO172024
KirkCOLORADO172023
Pine BluffWYOMING172024
Adams Co.COLORADO162022
Fort MorganCOLORADO162024
AmherstCOLORADO152024
KimballNEBRASKA152022
CrawfordNEBRASKA152024
NunnCOLORADO142021
WaverlyCOLORADO132019
BennettCOLORADO132018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.