BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

American Robin in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+115%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 14–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 14–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201327
2027201327
2028201327
2029201327
2030211428

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Robin in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA1242017
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA1162004
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA1062002
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA781991
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA782025
Reed PointMONTANA642025
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA612025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA602025
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA592021
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA552024
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA552012
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA532025
Maynard CouleeMONTANA522025
Moskee 2WYOMING512021
WinifredMONTANA472023
HighwoodMONTANA442025
MoskeeWYOMING442001
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA422025
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA422025
Moskee 3WYOMING422025
SundanceWYOMING412025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA402024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA402013
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA392015
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA392025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.