BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

American Robin in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 14–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 14–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201327
2026211427
2027211428
2028211428
2029211428

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Robin in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA1242017
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA1162004
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA1062002
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA862018
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA802024
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA781991
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA662024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA632024
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA592021
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA552024
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA552012
Moskee 2WYOMING512021
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA502024
WinifredMONTANA472023
Maynard CouleeMONTANA472024
Moskee 3WYOMING452024
Reed PointMONTANA442024
MoskeeWYOMING442001
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA422022
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA412024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA402024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA402013
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA392015
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA382024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.