BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
213Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025281936
2026281936
2027281937
2028282037
2029282037

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO1932023
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO1912023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO1312024
Dolores RivCOLORADO1142024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO1072009
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO1032019
GooseberryUTAH862024
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH812023
Dixie NfUTAH772024
Logan CanyonUTAH772019
TsaileARIZONA672023
FerronUTAH662022
Fox CreekCOLORADO652024
Uintah NfUTAH651994
AspenCOLORADO642024
KamasUTAH632024
Douglas PassCOLORADO622024
CastletonCOLORADO622024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO612024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO582024
Blackhead PkCOLORADO572021
HannaUTAH572024
Marshall PasCOLORADO562019
Grizzly RdgeUTAH562024
Fox ParkWYOMING552024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.