BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
214Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 19–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 19–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026281936
2027281936
2028281936
2029281936
2030281936

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Robin in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO1932023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO1112025
Stillwater PassCOLORADO1072009
CastletonCOLORADO842025
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH812023
Logan CanyonUTAH772019
Dolores RivCOLORADO762025
Mcphee Res.COLORADO752025
FerronUTAH742025
Navajo LakeUTAH722025
CokedaleCOLORADO712025
KamasUTAH712025
SoapstoneUTAH692025
TsaileARIZONA672023
Heeney 2COLORADO672025
Uintah NfUTAH651994
Rifle FallsCOLORADO632025
Grizzly RdgeUTAH632025
Douglas PassCOLORADO622024
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO622025
GooseberryUTAH622025
Fox CreekCOLORADO582025
HannaUTAH572024
Marshall PasCOLORADO562019
Ryan ParkWYOMING552025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.