BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

American Robin in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 2.9–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 2.9–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026174.629
2027164.228
2028163.728
2029153.328
2030152.927

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording American Robin in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA611975
GeneseeCALIFORNIA522024
GoumazCALIFORNIA522011
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA522005
PaxtonCALIFORNIA482025
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA442025
ChesterCALIFORNIA412017
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA341989
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA322019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA302025
WestvilleCALIFORNIA302025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA302025
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA282025
Forest HillCALIFORNIA242025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA242017
ChilcootCALIFORNIA222024
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA212025
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA202025
RivertonCALIFORNIA172025
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA171994
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA162025
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA162019
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA152024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA142025
DardanelleCALIFORNIA132019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.