BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Robin In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 74 (95% range 61–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
61–8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 74 (95% range 61–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025746187
2026746187
2027746187
2028746187
2029746187

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaNEW-YORK2422024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK1812024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK1632024
NaplesNEW-YORK1432024
West SenecaNEW-YORK1372004
MacdougallNEW-YORK1272024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK1272024
HiramOHIO1082021
OrleansNEW-YORK1072024
N VictoryNEW-YORK1041972
RomulusNEW-YORK1022000
GarrettsvileOHIO1011991
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA982024
Canadice LNEW-YORK972024
PittsfieldOHIO902024
BranchportNEW-YORK882024
HamburgNEW-YORK872024
HinesburgVERMONT871994
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA862024
PenfieldNEW-YORK852024
NashvilleNEW-YORK832018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK832023
New SomersetOHIO831993
HebronOHIO832024
LattasburgOHIO812024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.