BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Robin In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 74 (95% range 61–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
61–8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 74 (95% range 61–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Robin in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaNEW-YORK2092025
MacdougallNEW-YORK1872025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK1712025
NaplesNEW-YORK1512025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK1472025
North PownalVERMONT1432025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1412025
West SenecaNEW-YORK1372004
OrleansNEW-YORK1142025
PenfieldNEW-YORK1122025
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK1062025
N VictoryNEW-YORK1041972
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA1042025
RomulusNEW-YORK1022000
GarrettsvileOHIO1011991
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA972025
Herner CrnsOHIO942025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA942025
PittsfieldOHIO902024
BranchportNEW-YORK882024
Valley CityOHIO872025
HinesburgVERMONT871994
NashvilleNEW-YORK832018
New SomersetOHIO831993
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA801994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.