BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

American Robin in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
223Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Robin In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 15–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 15–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271638
2027271638
2028261537
2029261537
2030261537

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Robin in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WallowaOREGON1072025
MammothWYOMING822025
CascadeIDAHO801984
Red RockMONTANA802025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON772015
CoolinIDAHO762025
ChestnutMONTANA762025
NaplesIDAHO722025
NezperceIDAHO712012
KellerWASHINGTON702007
Church HillMONTANA692025
Buckskin MtnWYOMING692025
DonnellyOREGON682006
Pagil GulchMONTANA662025
Silver CreekOREGON662025
WoodruffUTAH662025
Libby DamMONTANA652025
OchocoOREGON651982
AlpineWYOMING622025
Colter Bay 2WYOMING602025
Cape HornIDAHO592025
LaurierWASHINGTON592025
YellowstoneWYOMING592025
Clyde ParkMONTANA582025
Donelly 2OREGON582025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.