BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968
38Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029
0.40Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8195% range
±41.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.390.000.81
20260.400.000.81
20270.400.000.81
20280.400.000.81
20290.400.000.81

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida.
Pleasant GrFLORIDA82008
Polk CityFLORIDA52024
San AntonioFLORIDA42024
St AugustineFLORIDA31978
FlemingtonFLORIDA31999
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32024
OcalaFLORIDA32024
RomeoFLORIDA22024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA21973
MabelFLORIDA22010
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22024
SalvistaFLORIDA21979
NobletonFLORIDA22024
Mabel 2FLORIDA22019
CitrusFLORIDA22022
MicanopyFLORIDA11978
BelmoreFLORIDA11992
ChildsFLORIDA12022
ScottsmoorFLORIDA11977
AlturasFLORIDA11975
KenansvilleFLORIDA11980
Plantation KFLORIDA11983
DeanvilleFLORIDA11994
Winter GardnFLORIDA12017
SandyFLORIDA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.