BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.000.81
20260.400.000.81
20270.400.000.81
20280.400.000.81
20290.400.000.81

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording American Kestrel in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant GrFLORIDA82008
Polk CityFLORIDA52024
San AntonioFLORIDA42024
St AugustineFLORIDA31978
FlemingtonFLORIDA31999
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32024
OcalaFLORIDA32024
RomeoFLORIDA22024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA21973
MabelFLORIDA22010
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22024
SalvistaFLORIDA21979
NobletonFLORIDA22024
Mabel 2FLORIDA22019
CitrusFLORIDA22022
MicanopyFLORIDA11978
BelmoreFLORIDA11992
ChildsFLORIDA12022
ScottsmoorFLORIDA11977
AlturasFLORIDA11975
KenansvilleFLORIDA11980
Plantation KFLORIDA11983
DeanvilleFLORIDA11994
Winter GardnFLORIDA12017
SandyFLORIDA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.