BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968
125Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±311.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1895% range
±311.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.18
20260.000.000.18
20270.000.000.18
20280.000.000.18
20290.000.000.18

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
HuntingtonNEW-YORK71981
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT51979
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY51977
WarrenCONNECTICUT31990
MillingtonMARYLAND32024
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY31970
FredericaDELAWARE22000
BlackbirdDELAWARE22010
Cape NeddickMAINE21998
LargoMARYLAND21981
La PlataMARYLAND22009
HarmonyMARYLAND22017
EastonMARYLAND22018
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS21975
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS21987
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS21992
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22022
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY21991
RobbinsvilleNEW-JERSEY21977
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY21989
ManorvilleNEW-YORK21995
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA21997
MysticCONNECTICUT11999
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT11971
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.