BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±311.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±311.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±311.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.18
20260.000.000.18
20270.000.000.18
20280.000.000.18
20290.000.000.18

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Kestrel in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HuntingtonNEW-YORK71981
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT51979
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY51977
WarrenCONNECTICUT31990
MillingtonMARYLAND32024
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY31970
FredericaDELAWARE22000
BlackbirdDELAWARE22010
Cape NeddickMAINE21998
LargoMARYLAND21981
La PlataMARYLAND22009
HarmonyMARYLAND22017
EastonMARYLAND22018
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS21975
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS21987
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS21992
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22022
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY21991
RobbinsvilleNEW-JERSEY21977
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY21989
ManorvilleNEW-YORK21995
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA21997
MysticCONNECTICUT11999
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT11971
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.