BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
292Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.12–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.12–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.140.49
20260.310.130.49
20270.310.130.48
20280.300.130.48
20290.300.120.48

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MckeeKENTUCKY82024
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA82024
WarwickNEW-YORK61974
RydePENNSYLVANIA52005
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA51999
Greasy RidgeOHIO41991
SigelPENNSYLVANIA42016
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA42022
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA41988
SmithsburgMARYLAND32013
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY31993
GainesvilleNEW-YORK32022
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA31977
MeadowbrookOHIO32005
New MarshfldOHIO32017
Coal RunOHIO31992
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA32024
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA32024
RushPENNSYLVANIA32024
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA32024
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA32024
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA32023
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA32001
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA32021
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.