BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968
292Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.12–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
0.30Projected 2029 index
0.12–0.4895% range
±11.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.320.140.49
20260.310.130.49
20270.310.130.48
20280.300.130.48
20290.300.120.48

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Kestrel in Appalachian Mountains.
MckeeKENTUCKY82024
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA82024
WarwickNEW-YORK61974
RydePENNSYLVANIA52005
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA51999
Greasy RidgeOHIO41991
SigelPENNSYLVANIA42016
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA42022
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA41988
SmithsburgMARYLAND32013
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY31993
GainesvilleNEW-YORK32022
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA31977
MeadowbrookOHIO32005
New MarshfldOHIO32017
Coal RunOHIO31992
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA32024
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA32024
RushPENNSYLVANIA32024
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA32024
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA32024
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA32023
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA32001
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA32021
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.