BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.3
20270.640.001.3
20280.630.001.3
20290.620.001.3
20300.610.001.3

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Kestrel in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbia CtyINDIANA52004
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN52012
BismarkOHIO41995
AnnatonWISCONSIN42023
PackertownINDIANA32004
Packertown 2INDIANA32025
St CharlesMICHIGAN31995
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN32021
AdrianMICHIGAN32007
Belding 2MICHIGAN32015
OmroWISCONSIN32001
Mount HorebWISCONSIN31988
Lake GalenaILLINOIS22021
KewannaINDIANA22021
MiddleburyINDIANA22025
LakevilleINDIANA22021
LagrangeINDIANA22019
LawrenceMICHIGAN22023
BeldingMICHIGAN22000
GalesburgMICHIGAN22021
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN22025
MontereyMICHIGAN21992
Bell OakMICHIGAN22007
HoltMICHIGAN22024
HomerMICHIGAN22012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.