BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Kestrel In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.30
20260.060.000.29
20270.050.000.28
20280.040.000.27
20290.040.000.26

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
Wilson MillsMAINE51993
WatervilleVERMONT41980
South ArmMAINE31990
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS31989
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE32017
GaysvilleVERMONT32007
Otisfield GrMAINE22002
East TroyMAINE22019
FreedomMAINE21994
CambridgeMAINE22006
Forest StaMAINE22000
Ft FairfieldMAINE21998
St DavidMAINE22004
Heron LakeMAINE21990
SearsportMAINE22024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS21988
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS22016
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE21972
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE21968
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE22021
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE22023
HardwickVERMONT22010
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11979
WestbrookMAINE12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.