Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regions Atlantic Northern Forest Generalists

American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968

118Routes In Region

58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029

0.04Projected 2029 index

0.00–0.2695% range

±73.1%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% high
2025	0.07	0.30
2026	0.06	0.29
2027	0.05	0.28
2028	0.04	0.27
2029	0.04	0.26

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Kestrel in Atlantic Northern Forest.

Dixville Notch 2	NEW-HAMPSHIRE	6	2024
Wilson Mills	MAINE	5	1993
Waterville	VERMONT	4	1980
South Arm	MAINE	3	1990
Cheshire	MASSACHUSETTS	3	1989
Dixvil Notch	NEW-HAMPSHIRE	3	2017
Gaysville	VERMONT	3	2007
Otisfield Gr	MAINE	2	2002
East Troy	MAINE	2	2019
Freedom	MAINE	2	1994
Cambridge	MAINE	2	2006
Forest Sta	MAINE	2	2000
Ft Fairfield	MAINE	2	1998
St David	MAINE	2	2004
Heron Lake	MAINE	2	1990
Searsport	MAINE	2	2024
N Orange	MASSACHUSETTS	2	1988
Pittsfield	MASSACHUSETTS	2	2016
Peterborough	NEW-HAMPSHIRE	2	1972
Mt Chocorua	NEW-HAMPSHIRE	2	1968
Walpole	NEW-HAMPSHIRE	2	2021
Milan	NEW-HAMPSHIRE	2	2023
Hardwick	VERMONT	2	2010
New Hartford	CONNECTICUT	1	1979
Westbrook	MAINE	1	2014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.