BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969
110Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029
0.35Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.095% range
±134.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.400.001.1
20260.390.001.0
20270.380.001.0
20280.370.001.0
20290.350.001.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes.
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA92008
PoncaNEBRASKA42024
GarnerIOWA31993
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA32011
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA32024
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
GlasgowMONTANA32024
LambertMONTANA32024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA31996
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
ZearingIOWA21993
ScrantonIOWA22024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA22016
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
GlyndonMINNESOTA22018
HarlemMONTANA22018
OswegoMONTANA21989
GildfordMONTANA22017
SpartaNEBRASKA22019
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22017
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA21998
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA21994
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA21996
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.