BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.001.0
20270.380.001.0
20280.360.001.0
20290.350.001.00
20300.340.000.99

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA92008
GlasgowMONTANA42025
PoncaNEBRASKA42024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA42025
GarnerIOWA31993
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA32011
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA32024
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
ChinookMONTANA32025
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA31996
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
ZearingIOWA21993
ScrantonIOWA22024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA22016
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
HarlemMONTANA22018
OswegoMONTANA21989
GildfordMONTANA22017
SacoMONTANA22025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22017
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA21998
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.