BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.001.1
20260.390.001.0
20270.380.001.0
20280.370.001.0
20290.350.001.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Kestrel in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA92008
PoncaNEBRASKA42024
GarnerIOWA31993
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA32011
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA32024
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
GlasgowMONTANA32024
LambertMONTANA32024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA31996
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
ZearingIOWA21993
ScrantonIOWA22024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA22016
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
GlyndonMINNESOTA22018
HarlemMONTANA22018
OswegoMONTANA21989
GildfordMONTANA22017
SpartaNEBRASKA22019
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22017
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA21998
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA21994
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA21996
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.