BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

American Goshawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-71%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goshawk has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

American Goshawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.05
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording American Goshawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mendota 2WASHINGTON21991
HainesALASKA11995
CordovaALASKA12005
Thompson PasALASKA12014
Sheep MtnALASKA12006
Thorne BayALASKA12012
HopeALASKA12023
Mitkof IsleALASKA12018
Zimovia StrtALASKA12004
Harlequin L.ALASKA11997
HoonahALASKA12005
ZaremboALASKA12018
Copper RiverALASKA12005
HoneydewCALIFORNIA12012
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA11998
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA11978
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA12012
DirigioCALIFORNIA12006
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA12007
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA12003
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA12004
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA12003
ShellrockOREGON12000
Cool CampOREGON11981
DerbyOREGON11971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.