BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goldfinch In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 1.4–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 1.4–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.01.910
20265.91.810.0
20275.71.69.8
20285.61.59.7
20295.51.49.6

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warm BeachWASHINGTON602017
AdairOREGON502024
SvensenOREGON411992
South ElmaWASHINGTON382024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON372024
DaytonOREGON322024
SalemOREGON272024
RaymondWASHINGTON242021
MukilteoWASHINGTON232024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON232024
HoneydewCALIFORNIA222017
Rio DellCALIFORNIA222012
MendotaWASHINGTON221988
GarfieldOREGON202023
ScappooseOREGON172023
CarnationWASHINGTON172024
Raymond 2WASHINGTON172024
CoquilleOREGON162024
Bay ViewWASHINGTON162017
CanbyOREGON152024
DeceptionWASHINGTON132018
Fish RockCALIFORNIA122014
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA122010
McminnvilleOREGON122024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.