BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Piedmont has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has risen sharply in Piedmont: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.915
2026118.015
2027118.115
2028128.215
2029128.315

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrymeVIRGINIA642024
HallVIRGINIA462023
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY452024
ShipmanVIRGINIA392024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND372024
CrotonNEW-JERSEY332007
EkloMARYLAND322018
TaylorstownVIRGINIA302010
FinchleyVIRGINIA292021
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA282024
OlneyMARYLAND272024
ConcordVIRGINIA272024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND262024
EarltonMARYLAND262024
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA251996
AmherstVIRGINIA242024
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA232024
BrodnaxVIRGINIA232024
Brandy StationVIRGINIA212024
MadonnaMARYLAND202022
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA202024
LabottPENNSYLVANIA191983
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA192024
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA182024
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA182001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.