BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+205%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
177Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.96–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.96–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.891.8
20261.40.911.8
20271.40.931.8
20281.40.941.8
20291.40.961.9

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA352024
MansfieldTENNESSEE262024
NewsomsVIRGINIA142024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA132024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA132017
WaverlyVIRGINIA131987
South. PinesNORTH-CAROLINA121995
BranchvilleVIRGINIA122024
LovelacevileKENTUCKY112024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA112013
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA112017
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
Big SandyTENNESSEE102024
SurryVIRGINIA92024
HoltALABAMA82023
NewvilleVIRGINIA82024
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA72024
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA72024
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA72024
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA72021
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA72024
WallsboroALABAMA61995
WadleyGEORGIA62024
MillenGEORGIA62024
White HillGEORGIA62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.