BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

American Goldfinch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.46–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.46–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.421.7
20271.10.431.7
20281.10.441.7
20291.10.451.8
20301.10.461.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI102025
DellARKANSAS72015
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE72025
MaynardARKANSAS52024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY52025
HarrisburgARKANSAS42012
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE42025
TippoMISSISSIPPI32007
DeventerMISSOURI32025
HughesARKANSAS22025
SaffellARKANSAS22013
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22010
BlodgettMISSOURI22025
PawpawTENNESSEE22012
South BendARKANSAS12001
WilsonARKANSAS12019
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12006
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12025
BardwellKENTUCKY12003
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12004
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11992
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI12024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI11995
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI12012
KennettMISSOURI12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.