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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.000.56
20270.260.000.56
20280.260.000.56
20290.260.000.55
20300.250.000.55

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine MtnARKANSAS122025
AshdownARKANSAS42007
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS42025
BlakelyARKANSAS31998
WaldronARKANSAS32023
StarkARKANSAS32025
HavanaARKANSAS32021
SimsARKANSAS32025
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS32023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA31969
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA32024
Old MiloARKANSAS21996
NanceARKANSAS22019
Dry ForkARKANSAS22023
Big CedarOKLAHOMA22015
PocolaOKLAHOMA22015
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA22025
RamseyARKANSAS11985
Locust BayouARKANSAS12005
StampsARKANSAS11997
CrowsARKANSAS11988
HollywoodARKANSAS12016
Coal HillARKANSAS12017
MassardARKANSAS12022
StephensARKANSAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.