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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Goldfinch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 141% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 141% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.54
20260.240.000.54
20270.240.000.54
20280.240.000.53
20290.240.000.53

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording American Goldfinch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AshdownARKANSAS42007
BlakelyARKANSAS31998
WaldronARKANSAS32023
HavanaARKANSAS32021
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS32023
Magazine MtnARKANSAS32021
Mer RougeLOUISIANA31969
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA32024
Old MiloARKANSAS21996
StarkARKANSAS22022
NanceARKANSAS22019
Dry ForkARKANSAS22023
Big CedarOKLAHOMA22015
BethelOKLAHOMA22024
PocolaOKLAHOMA22015
RamseyARKANSAS11985
Locust BayouARKANSAS12005
StampsARKANSAS11997
CrowsARKANSAS11988
HollywoodARKANSAS12016
Coal HillARKANSAS12017
MassardARKANSAS12022
SimsARKANSAS12023
StephensARKANSAS12016
PrincetonARKANSAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.