BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201228
2026201228
2027201228
2028201228
2029201328

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmroWISCONSIN452001
WhitewaterMINNESOTA422000
MukwonagoWISCONSIN422004
OsseoMINNESOTA392024
St StephenMINNESOTA392016
ManitowocWISCONSIN392024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN352024
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA322024
BeloitWISCONSIN322024
TyreMICHIGAN311996
LockportOHIO312024
BismarkOHIO311995
HighlandWISCONSIN312024
HartlandMICHIGAN302011
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN302024
ParisWISCONSIN292024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA282024
PackertownINDIANA272004
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN272024
CumberlandWISCONSIN272024
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN252023
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN252024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA242024
New LisbonWISCONSIN242024
GreshamWISCONSIN242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.