BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201227
2027201228
2028201228
2029201228
2030201228

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmroWISCONSIN452001
WhitewaterMINNESOTA422000
MukwonagoWISCONSIN422004
KnappMINNESOTA412025
ManitowocWISCONSIN392024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN362025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA352025
KielWISCONSIN342025
HighlandWISCONSIN322025
TyreMICHIGAN311996
BismarkOHIO311995
HartlandMICHIGAN302011
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA292025
PackertownINDIANA272004
N AndoverWISCONSIN272025
ParisWISCONSIN272025
LockportOHIO262025
KingswayOHIO252025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN252023
HoltMICHIGAN242025
AlmenaMICHIGAN232015
VickeryOHIO232025
Belding 2MICHIGAN222025
MillvilleMINNESOTA222025
EdwardsMINNESOTA222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.