BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Goldfinch In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 139% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±637.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+139%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±637.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 139% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±637.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.81
20260.350.000.81
20270.350.000.81
20280.360.000.81
20290.360.000.81

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32015
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22004
BeggsOKLAHOMA22022
LocoOKLAHOMA11980
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11989
NobleOKLAHOMA12024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12019
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11970
Oak GroveTEXAS11986
DikeTEXAS11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.