BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Goldfinch In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.10–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.10–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.081.3
20260.710.081.3
20270.710.091.3
20280.720.101.3
20290.730.101.3

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrawfordNEBRASKA262024
KimballNEBRASKA251978
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA252024
Agate 2NEBRASKA142024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA102024
Adams Co.COLORADO82022
LimonCOLORADO72003
PinneoCOLORADO62019
BennettCOLORADO62015
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO61997
Kiowa 2COLORADO42024
RockportCOLORADO42018
YoderWYOMING42009
KiowaCOLORADO32018
HudsonCOLORADO32023
VillegreenCOLORADO32001
ArsenalCOLORADO32015
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
BenkelmanNEBRASKA32022
BriggsdaleCOLORADO21993
AbarrCOLORADO21992
TrincheraCOLORADO22015
StonehamCOLORADO22010
NunnCOLORADO22021
Fort MorganCOLORADO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.