BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Goldfinch In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.0–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.0–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.94.0
20263.01.94.0
20273.02.04.0
20283.02.04.0
20293.02.04.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA182011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA162011
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA152024
St Xavier 2MONTANA132023
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA122022
DaytonWYOMING122024
Reed PointMONTANA102024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA102019
SundanceWYOMING102024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA92024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA92023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA91995
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA82024
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA82019
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA82011
HighwoodMONTANA72024
SavageMONTANA72019
Two DotMONTANA72024
BrandenbergMONTANA72019
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA72022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA72024
WyarnoWYOMING72024
ArvadaWYOMING72024
Moskee 3WYOMING72024
FlatwillowMONTANA62008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.