BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 285% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+285%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 285% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goldfinch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.08–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.08–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.071.6
20270.860.071.6
20280.860.071.6
20290.860.081.7
20300.870.081.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO612023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO182025
AlamosaCOLORADO132025
Dolores RivCOLORADO102017
Rifle FallsCOLORADO102025
La SalUTAH101993
Sybille CynWYOMING102025
ThomasvilleCOLORADO91993
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO92025
Dixie NfUTAH81998
Fletcher PkWYOMING82024
FlattopsCOLORADO72006
Cheesman LkCOLORADO62025
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO62023
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH62025
DoloresCOLORADO51987
BrookhurstWYOMING52019
WarbonnetWYOMING52025
ColonaCOLORADO41987
Wilson CreekCOLORADO42025
NotomUTAH41995
Moon Lake 2UTAH42023
Lost Cr. ResUTAH42015
Douglas PassCOLORADO32024
WaldenCOLORADO32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.