BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+258%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goldfinch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.07–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.07–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.071.7
20260.860.071.7
20270.870.071.7
20280.870.071.7
20290.870.071.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO612023
Dolores RivCOLORADO102017
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH102023
La SalUTAH101993
Cheesman LkCOLORADO92024
ThomasvilleCOLORADO91993
Blackhead PkCOLORADO82021
Dixie NfUTAH81998
Fletcher PkWYOMING82024
FlattopsCOLORADO72006
Sybille CynWYOMING72015
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO62023
Rifle FallsCOLORADO62021
DoloresCOLORADO51987
Deadman Rd.COLORADO52024
BrookhurstWYOMING52019
ColonaCOLORADO41987
NotomUTAH41995
Moon Lake 2UTAH42023
Lost Cr. ResUTAH42015
Douglas PassCOLORADO32024
AlamosaCOLORADO32022
CortezCOLORADO32008
Dunckley PasCOLORADO32024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.