BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025104.516
2026104.516
2027104.416
2028104.416
2029104.316

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManchesterMAINE531995
Bowdoin CtrMAINE472021
WashburnMAINE452005
WestbrookMAINE442024
Turner 2MAINE382024
BrooksMAINE372019
HarmonyMAINE302024
Otisfield GrMAINE292015
East HavenVERMONT282024
S WallingfrdVERMONT272022
East TroyMAINE262019
EastbrookMAINE252024
BoundaryMAINE252016
RomeMAINE252024
CornvilleMAINE252024
LandgroveVERMONT252024
W RutlandVERMONT242024
S HoriconNEW-YORK232018
TurnerMAINE222010
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS222024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE222024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE222024
Number FourNEW-YORK222016
NewcastleMAINE212024
StoweVERMONT212024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.