BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 25 (95% range 17–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 25 (95% range 17–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251733
2027251733
2028251733
2029251733
2030251733

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesNEW-YORK992025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK952025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK742025
RomulusNEW-YORK702000
MacdougallNEW-YORK682025
North PownalVERMONT632025
N Victory 2NEW-YORK522021
DuanesburgNEW-YORK472025
Alder CreekNEW-YORK442004
GarrettsvileOHIO441991
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK412025
LucerneOHIO402025
HamburgNEW-YORK382025
OrleansNEW-YORK372025
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA372025
Harris HillNEW-YORK362025
RandolphNEW-YORK352018
CayugaNEW-YORK332025
PenfieldNEW-YORK332025
BranchportNEW-YORK322024
WatertownNEW-YORK322012
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA312025
NashvilleNEW-YORK302018
Canadice LNEW-YORK292025
North EastonNEW-YORK282025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.