BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 25 (95% range 17–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 25 (95% range 17–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251733
2026251733
2027251733
2028251733
2029251733

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1182023
RomulusNEW-YORK702000
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK622024
CastileNEW-YORK592024
OrleansNEW-YORK562024
MacdougallNEW-YORK552024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK522021
NaplesNEW-YORK492024
CayugaNEW-YORK462024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK442004
GarrettsvileOHIO441991
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK422024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK392024
LucerneOHIO372024
RandolphNEW-YORK352018
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA352024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA352024
BranchportNEW-YORK322024
HamburgNEW-YORK322024
WatertownNEW-YORK322012
DuanesburgNEW-YORK312024
Canadice LNEW-YORK312024
NashvilleNEW-YORK302018
ByronNEW-YORK302024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.