BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 4.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 4.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.34.614
20269.34.614
20279.34.614
20289.24.614
20299.24.614

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar RunMICHIGAN621999
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN432024
CunardMICHIGAN312021
DebsMINNESOTA292024
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN272004
GreenbushMINNESOTA252024
WilsonMICHIGAN242010
OntonagonMICHIGAN212019
PickfordMICHIGAN212024
BayfieldWISCONSIN212024
HerronMICHIGAN202016
MayfieldMICHIGAN202022
IrmaWISCONSIN192024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN181997
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN182019
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN182024
BrainerdMINNESOTA182024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN182024
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN172011
WausaukeeWISCONSIN152024
MareniscoMICHIGAN142019
BootjackMICHIGAN142023
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN141992
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN141996
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA142023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.