BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.2 (95% range 4.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.2 (95% range 4.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.24.614
20279.24.614
20289.24.614
20299.24.614
20309.24.614

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar RunMICHIGAN621999
GreenbushMINNESOTA432025
MayfieldMICHIGAN412025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN382025
CunardMICHIGAN312021
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN272004
WilsonMICHIGAN242010
DebsMINNESOTA242025
LudeMINNESOTA232025
WaskishMINNESOTA222025
WarroadMINNESOTA222025
OntonagonMICHIGAN212019
BackusMINNESOTA212025
HerronMICHIGAN202016
BashawWISCONSIN202025
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN181997
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN182019
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN182024
BrainerdMINNESOTA182024
Red LakeMINNESOTA182025
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN172011
ChaffeyWISCONSIN162025
MellenWISCONSIN162025
MareniscoMICHIGAN142019
BootjackMICHIGAN142023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.