BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.29–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.29–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.331.7
20261.00.321.7
20270.990.311.7
20280.980.301.7
20290.980.291.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClintonMONTANA181973
MeeteetseWYOMING162024
GrangevilleIDAHO141987
LaurelMONTANA142022
Muddy CreekMONTANA142015
Clyde ParkMONTANA122024
Wolf CreekMONTANA102022
OttoWYOMING92024
ClarkWYOMING92024
KalispellMONTANA82024
Twin BridgesMONTANA81974
Heart ButteMONTANA82024
SweetwaterWYOMING82009
AlturasIDAHO71968
East Glacier ParkMONTANA72024
Hells CanyonOREGON62022
Deer ParkWASHINGTON62015
DuboisWYOMING62024
Buckskin MtnWYOMING62017
HarmonyWYOMING62023
AugustaMONTANA52024
GreenoughMONTANA52003
Silver CreekOREGON51990
Black Mtn.OREGON52003
DonnybrookOREGON51997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.