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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Crow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

American Crow in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+61%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Crow has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

American Crow In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Crow in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Crow in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.001.2
20260.580.001.2
20270.580.001.2
20280.590.001.2
20290.590.001.2

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Crow in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KachemakALASKA222024
KalifonskyALASKA82022
HomerALASKA41982
Anchor RiverALASKA32024
Seven LakesALASKA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.