BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

American Coot in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Coot In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.010.000.19
20210.010.000.19
20220.000.000.19
20230.000.000.18
20240.000.000.18

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Coot in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN51998
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA42002
Omro 2WISCONSIN42002
GalesburgMICHIGAN32002
Rolling PrWISCONSIN31975
EdenWISCONSIN31973
ScottvilleMICHIGAN21975
MontereyMICHIGAN21998
North BranchMICHIGAN21987
RochesterMICHIGAN22012
HamburgMICHIGAN21990
Money CreekMINNESOTA21991
ChatfieldMINNESOTA21980
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA22001
EdwardsMINNESOTA21978
AshbyMINNESOTA22012
DresserWISCONSIN22013
LoraineWISCONSIN21979
EsdaileWISCONSIN21977
UnityWISCONSIN22008
CascoWISCONSIN22002
PardeevilleWISCONSIN21994
Beaver DamWISCONSIN21989
Columbia CtyINDIANA11998
EllisINDIANA11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.