BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

American Coot in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Coot In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1048.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1048.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1048.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.17
20210.000.000.17
20220.000.000.17
20230.000.000.17
20240.000.000.17

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Coot in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AustinMINNESOTA162001
StetMISSOURI111973
SheffieldILLINOIS61973
PiersonIOWA42009
New LenoxILLINOIS21984
ChandlervillILLINOIS21986
JamestownILLINOIS21976
Grape CreekILLINOIS22002
GaryINDIANA21984
BedfordIOWA21979
Ash CreekMINNESOTA21993
LakevilleMINNESOTA21989
RaymondWISCONSIN21974
GeneseoILLINOIS11988
NewarkILLINOIS11984
MelroseILLINOIS11976
Bluff SpgsILLINOIS11975
BelleviewILLINOIS11976
PawneeILLINOIS11972
BeaucoupILLINOIS11985
Troy GroveILLINOIS12019
EldredILLINOIS12012
W LafayetteINDIANA12011
Sioux CityIOWA12017
Rock ValleyIOWA11972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.