BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Coot In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1066.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1066.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1066.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.94
20260.240.000.93
20270.230.000.93
20280.230.000.93
20290.230.000.92

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO402017
PanhandleTEXAS302016
DoughertyTEXAS152015
Wildhorse LCOLORADO132015
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO101973
FrionaTEXAS82017
KeyesOKLAHOMA52016
FloydadaTEXAS52017
HookerOKLAHOMA42015
HaswellCOLORADO31996
KarvalCOLORADO32015
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO31979
PantexTEXAS32023
ClaytonvilleTEXAS32022
KiowaCOLORADO22009
LamarCOLORADO22021
WaverlyCOLORADO21991
Sheridan LakCOLORADO22014
KimballNEBRASKA21978
Murray LakeNEBRASKA21987
PostTEXAS22015
CircleTEXAS21999
TenmileTEXAS22017
YoderWYOMING21986
Last ChanceCOLORADO11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.