BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Coot In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American Coot In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±973.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±973.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±973.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.000.92
20270.230.000.92
20280.220.000.91
20290.220.000.91
20300.220.000.91

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Coot in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO402017
DoughertyTEXAS152015
Wildhorse LCOLORADO132015
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO101973
HookerOKLAHOMA92025
FrionaTEXAS82017
KeyesOKLAHOMA52016
FloydadaTEXAS52017
HaswellCOLORADO31996
KarvalCOLORADO32015
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO31979
PantexTEXAS32023
ClaytonvilleTEXAS32022
KiowaCOLORADO22009
LamarCOLORADO22021
WaverlyCOLORADO21991
Sheridan LakCOLORADO22014
Arsenal 2COLORADO22025
KimballNEBRASKA21978
Murray LakeNEBRASKA21987
PostTEXAS22015
CircleTEXAS21999
TenmileTEXAS22017
YoderWYOMING21986
Last ChanceCOLORADO11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.