BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Coot In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

American Coot in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Coot In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 200% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+200%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 200% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.80.0013
20274.80.0013
20284.70.0013
20294.70.0013
20304.70.0013

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Coot in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA402009
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA352011
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA342024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA311983
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA262019
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA232025
ShelbyMONTANA212018
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA192025
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA192012
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA182025
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA172023
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA132025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA132025
SunburstMONTANA122007
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA112024
Hay LakeMONTANA102018
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA72025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA72010
FranklinMINNESOTA62018
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA62024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA62017
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA62021
OswegoMONTANA52021
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.