BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Bittern In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

American Bittern in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

American Bittern In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Bittern in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA31977
SomersNEW-YORK21970
HopeNEW-JERSEY11977
MedusaNEW-YORK11969
MeridaleNEW-YORK12007
CobleskillNEW-YORK12022
S BerneNEW-YORK11982
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK12024
LisleNEW-YORK11976
DrydenNEW-YORK11984
Phillips CrNEW-YORK11967
GainesvilleNEW-YORK11981
CattaraugusNEW-YORK11999
S VandaliaNEW-YORK11967
New MarshfldOHIO11974
CumberlandOHIO11979
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA11973
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA12005
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA12022
English CtrPENNSYLVANIA11974
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA11998
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA11971
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA11974
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA11974
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.