BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Bittern In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

American Bittern in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

American Bittern In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.69 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.22–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.69 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.22–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.960.221.7
20270.960.221.7
20280.970.221.7
20290.970.221.7
20300.970.221.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Bittern in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA132011
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA102025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA102025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA82025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA72025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA42011
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42009
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA42024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA42010
GryglaMINNESOTA32011
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA32024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32022
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA32023
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA32022
ChandlerMINNESOTA21984
CourtlandMINNESOTA21991
MaynardMINNESOTA21969
ChokioMINNESOTA22022
TenneyMINNESOTA21980
ErieMINNESOTA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.